New paper in ES&T Water -WBE and Zika virus

Author: Andrei Badilla Aguilar

Graphical Abstract

A Model-Based Framework to Assess the Feasibility of Monitoring Zika Virus with Wastewater-Based Epidemiology

In this study, we explore the feasibility of wastewater monitoring for Zika virus. We estimate the distribution of Zika RNA concentrations in wastewater based on prior shedding data and use Monte Carlo simulations to estimate the probability of detecting Zika RNA in wastewater. Historical case data suggest that successful Zika wastewater monitoring efforts are unlikely in the United States, but likely for Zika-endemic countries with decreased wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) per capita flows, such as Brazil and Colombia, during an outbreak as observed in 2016. However, the significant discrepancy between the true and reported clinical cases suggests that Zika wastewater monitoring may be feasible even in the absence of outbreaks in endemic countries. Therefore, it is crucial to fine-tune the experimental procedures, specifically by using sufficiently high numbers of polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assay replicates and low limit of detection values in endemic countries, to ensure the success of Zika wastewater monitoring efforts.